In early September I wrote a piece discussing how The Washington Post, widely viewed as a flagship of the liberal establishment, was now acknowledging the scale of the collapse facing the Left in this November’s mid-terms. As The Post put it, “Democrats in Congress are no longer asking themselves whether this is going to be a bad election year for them and their party. They are asking whether it is going to be a disaster.”
Three weeks later, there is no evidence to suggest the political landscape is getting any better for President Obama and his party. If anything, it’s getting even worse according to some polls, as a recent CNN survey showed. According to the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, a striking 56 percent of Americans now believe President Obama has fallen short of their expectations.
The latest RealClear Politics poll of polls has Obama at just 45 percent approval, and the Republicans currently with a 17 seat advantage in the House of Representatives race, with a further 38 seats in contention. The Senate race remains extremely tight, with RealClear Politics giving the Democrats a projected slim 51 to 49 seat lead, which would mean an eight seat gain by the GOP. At the Governor level, RCP has the Republicans with a nearly two to one advantage in terms of the race for State Houses.
Over at The New York Times however, the message doesn’t seem to have sunk in. The Times, generally regarded as the most powerful and elite liberal media entity in America, has a major piece this evening with the headline: “In Fluid Race, House Majority is Uncertain, GOP Says.” The article goes to extraordinary lengths to talk about a Democratic fight back in November, yet without citing any independent polling evidence to back it up. As The Times puts it:
Republicans carry substantial advantages as they move into the final month of the fall campaign, but the resilience of vulnerable Democrats is complicating Republican efforts to lock down enough seats to capture the House and take control of the unsettled electoral battleground.
By now, Republicans had hoped to put away a first layer of Democrats and set their sights on a second tier of incumbents. But the fight for control of Congress is more fluid than it seemed at Labor Day, with Democrats mounting strong resistance in some parts of the country as they try to hold off a potential Republican wave in November.
While acknowledging “the chances of a Republican takeover in the House remain far greater than in the Senate”, The Times bullishly declares that “enough contests remain in flux that both parties head into the final four weeks of the campaign with the ability to change the dynamic before Election Day.”
I haven’t come across a single major poll which supports this conclusion, and as for the GOP “declaring a house majority is uncertain” the piece merely cites unnamed “Republican strategists” as its source. And this view is completely contradicted in the same article by Senator John Cornyn of Texas, chairman of the Republican Senatorial Committee who, according to The Times, “said Democrats were delusional if they believed an upswing was under way.”
The Washington Post, to its credit, has offered a realistic assessment of the scale of the political revolution that is likely to sweep Washington this November. The New York Times, on the other hand, remains in a state of denial, and still seems to be living in November 2008. My guess is that on November 2nd 2010, The Times and the diehard liberal elites that continue to cling to it’s archaic left-wing vision will be given a wake-up call that will reverberate across the United States.
Although he won’t be on the ballot, the mid-terms will largely be a referendum on Barack Obama’s leadership. And by all accounts, The New York Times aside, the president is almost certainly heading towards a massive humiliation at the polls, no matter how hard his supporters try to put a positive spin on it.