Special Election:
I thought I should put this one first. DailyKos/Research2000 finds Republican Tim Burns up
six points over Democrat Mark Critz, 46%-40% in the race to replace John
Murtha. Large portions of this district haven’t been held by a
Republican since before the New Deal. This isn’t the type of district
that Republicans have to take in order to take back the House, but it is
exactly the type of district that Republicans have to take to do better
than they did in 1994. Obama sports a 38% favorability rating in the
district. This is the second poll in a row to show Burns up, in a
race that’s looking more an more like a pickup. The election will be
May 18.
Senate:
Illinois: Perhaps not unexpectedly, the Broadway
Bank scandal seems to be taking a toll on Alexi Giannoulias. He now
trails Congressman Mark Kirk 46%-38% in the race to replace Barack
Obama/Roland Burris. Although President Obama is still very popular in
the state, Giannoulias is upside-down, at 42% favorable/47%
unfavorable. Kirk sports a healthy 52%/31% split.
New Hampshire: At this point last year, I thought
that Judd Gregg’s Senate seat in New Hampshire would be the hardest one
for the GOP to hold this cycle. But the Granite State seems to have
swung back pretty hard toward the Republicans, after tsunamis in 2006
and 2008 that dragged down the state’s other GOP Senator. Kelly Ayotte
has led Paul Hodes in every poll taken this cycle, and has led him by
double digits, approaching 50% lately. Democratic nominee Paul Hodes’s
numbers are pretty poor for this early in the race. This is really
looking more and more like a GOP hold.
Delaware: Rasmussen finds Rep. Mike Castle
continues to hold the poll position (I am so clever) against Chris
Coons. 65% of the state approves of Castle, which is actually more than
the 54% who approve of President Obama. This 20-point lead doesn’t
look likely to evaporate anytime soon.
Ohio Primary: Earlier this week I wondered if the
race is starting to break for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher. Suffolk University
shows him opening up a 55%-27% lead over Jennifer Brunner, so I’m
thinking the answer is "yes." Brunner doesn’t have a lot of time to
turn this around, and it looks like we’re heading for a Fisher-Portman
matchup in what I think will be the GOP’s toughest seat to hold this
Fall.
Governor:
New York: Rasmussen Reports polled the New York
Governor’s race, and found Andrew Cuomo at only 55% or so against his
competitors. That I say "only" 55% or so is what you need to know about
the general state of this race. Cuomo won’t get the 70% or so that
Spitzer got in 2006, but he should still win.
Illinois: Rasmussen also finds Republican candidate Bill Brady in
the lead against Governor Pat Quinn, who is seeking a full term as
Governor after the removal of Rod Blagojevich. Quinn is upside-down in
his approval as well, at 43/50, while Brady is at 47/32. Things are
looking a little bleak for the Governor, though there are still six
months to go until election day.
Arizona Primary: Governor Jan Brewer’s re-election
prospects took a definite turn for the better with her signature of the
state’s tough anti-illegal immigration law. She gets 38% of the vote
against her GOP opponents, and has seen a sharp spike in her approval
rating among Republicans, whereas she was previously upside-down. This
dead woman walking is starting to show signs of life.
House
The UNH release also polled the House districts, and found that Carol
Shea-Porter continues to draw less than 40% of the vote against her
potential GOP challengers, including some that are pretty much
completely unknown. Needless to say this is not a good sign for the
two-term incumbent, which is why she is on our "Leans takeover" list.
In the Second District, former Congressman Charlie Bass continues to
lead his potential Democratic opponents pretty handily.
Marions space 