FRED BARNES
Alexandria, Va.
Virginia has been kind to Democrats
as of late. Eight years ago, Democrat Mark Warner captured the
governor’s mansion. Four years later, his lieutenant governor, Tim
Kaine, succeeded him. In 2006, Jim Webb took one of the state’s U.S.
Senate seats away from the GOP. Last year, Mr. Warner took the other as
Barack Obama became the first presidential candidate of his party to
carry the state in 44 years.
But now the Democratic tide is ebbing
in Virginia. In January Mr. Obama’s approval rating was 62%, according
to a Survey USA. By August it had fallen to 42%. This has important
political implications both in Virginia and nationally.
In six weeks, Virginia will elect a
governor, and Republican Bob McDonnell, a former state attorney
general, leads Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, a state senator with a
moderate-to-liberal record, in every poll by a small margin. A recent
poll by the nonpartisan Clarus Research Group gives him a five-point
lead.
Associated Press
Former
Attorney General and Republican gubernatorial candidate, Bob McDonnell,
left, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Virginia State Sen.
Creigh Deeds
Only one other state, New Jersey, has
a governor’s race this year. A Republican, Chris Christie, is leading
there too. But he is running against incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon
Corzine, whose tenure and the state’s record of corruption are the
overriding issues.
Virginia has no incumbent and a more
wide-open race. National issues are playing a bigger role here in part
because the state borders Washington, D.C. Mr. McDonnell has pressed
Mr. Deeds on card check legislation in Congress (which would allow
unions to organize a company without holding a secret ballot election),
the cap-and-trade energy tax that has passed the House, and other White
House priorities. Mr. Deeds has hit back by saying that Mr. McDonnell
echoes the economic ideas of George W. Bush.
A recent editorial in the Culpeper,
Va., Star-Exponent captured the effect Mr. Obama could have on the
race: "If this election were held a year ago, McDonnell wouldn’t stand
a chance. By party affiliation alone, Deeds would have surfed the
‘change’ tsunami straight into the governor’s mansion. Funny how
McDonnell could very well do the same now that public opinion has
cooled toward Obama."
Republicans also hope that a win in
Virginia’s governor’s race will help candidate recruitment for
congressional races next year. The GOP lost 50 House seats in 2006 and
2008 and needs strong candidates to win some of them back. Nick Ayres,
executive director of the Republican Governors Association, points out
that 51 of the 74 Republican freshmen who won House seats in 1994, when
the GOP won control of Congress, signed on as candidates in the two
weeks following the election of Republican governors in Virginia and
New Jersey in 1993.
In Virginia, Mr. McDonnell should
benefit from a more conservative electorate. In 2008, Mr. Obama’s
relentless campaigning attracted a surge of young and African-American
voters. The bloc of voters age 18 to 29 grew to 21% of the electorate,
up from 17% in 2004. African-American turnout jumped to 68% of eligible
voters from 52%.
Young and black voters are likely to
vote in smaller numbers this year. But University of Virginia professor
and political guru Larry Sabato calculates that the GOP will see a
boost of at least a few percentage points in turnout this year.
"They’re fired up," he told me. In 2008, "Republicans were
disillusioned and didn’t turn out. I saw it in a lot of places, even in
the heavily Republican [Shenandoah] Valley."
What’s more, after a stunning primary
victory over two better known liberal candidates earlier this year, Mr.
Deeds failed to emerge as an effective opponent. He hasn’t built the
powerful campaign many Democrats hoped he would. And he hasn’t caught
fire in Northern Virginia, where one-third of the state’s voters live,
in part because he’s from rural Bath County in southwest Virginia. His
Appalachian twang doesn’t play well in the suburbs of Washington, D.C.
However, Mr. McDonnell made a critical
mistake over the summer. In an interview with the Washington Post, he
mentioned the thesis he wrote in 1989 for a master’s degree from Regent
University. The paper’s reporting on the thesis has been explosive.
Titled the "Republican Party’s Vision
for the Family," the thesis was sharply critical of feminism, abortion
and gay rights, and argued for a government policy to strengthen the
"traditional family." It also suggested that working women are
"detrimental" to strong families.
Mr. Deeds jumped on the story by
releasing TV ads dubbing Mr. McDonnell "Backwards Bob" and accusing him
of being a right-wing zealot pretending to be a moderate. More harmful
to Mr. McDonnell has been the Post’s obsession with the thesis. By one
count, the Post published 40 stories, blog postings or cartoons on it
in just 13 days.
It’s somewhat reminiscent of 2006,
when Republican Sen. George Allen called a young man taping one of his
speeches "macacca." The Post ran a string of stories on the comment.
But that year, Mr. Allen was slow to react and only apologized after it
was too late. Mr. Webb ended up beating him by a few thousand votes.
Mr. McDonnell hasn’t made the mistake
of dawdling. The day after the story appeared, he spent 90 minutes
answering reporters’ questions. He said his views had changed and that
for Mr. Deeds "to suggest that I somehow don’t support women in the
workplace is insulting." He also noted that one of his daughters was a
combat pilot in Iraq.
Republicans hope the thesis furor will
blow over. "It didn’t change the fundamentals," Ed Gillespie, a former
Republican Party national chairman, told me. But it has energized
Democrats who had thought the race was unwinnable. Organized labor is
now pouring money into the race as one Democratic operative has noted
that, "Right now, this is a race between Barack Obama’s spending and
Bob McDonnell’s thesis."
We’ve come a long way from the
aftermath of Mr. Obama’s victory in the state last year, when Mr. Kaine
declared that election was proof that "old Virginny is dead." What we
are seeing now is that the state’s conservative roots aren’t entirely
dead yet.
Every campaign stumbles at some point.
But if Mr. McDonnell pulls off a victory, he will demonstrate that 2008
may have been an aberration—an artifact of the historic nature of Mr.
Obama’s candidacy and his well-run campaign. A McDonnell win would also
likely be a signal that voters got a close look at Mr. Obama’s ideas
and took out their frustration with the president on the nearest
Democrat—Mr. Deeds. There’s a sense of normalcy returning to Virginia,
and it portends well for Republicans.
Mr. Barnes is executive editor of the Weekly Standard and a commentator on Fox News Channel.
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A13
Only one other state, New Jersey, has
a governor’s race this year. A Republican, Chris Christie, is leading
there too. But he is running against incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon
Corzine, whose tenure and the state’s record of corruption are the
overriding issues.
Virginia has no incumbent and a more
wide-open race. National issues are playing a bigger role here in part
because the state borders Washington, D.C. Mr. McDonnell has pressed
Mr. Deeds on card check legislation in Congress (which would allow
unions to organize a company without holding a secret ballot election),
the cap-and-trade energy tax that has passed the House, and other White
House priorities. Mr. Deeds has hit back by saying that Mr. McDonnell
echoes the economic ideas of George W. Bush.
A recent editorial in the Culpeper,
Va., Star-Exponent captured the effect Mr. Obama could have on the
race: "If this election were held a year ago, McDonnell wouldn’t stand
a chance. By party affiliation alone, Deeds would have surfed the
‘change’ tsunami straight into the governor’s mansion. Funny how
McDonnell could very well do the same now that public opinion has
cooled toward Obama."
Republicans also hope that a win in
Virginia’s governor’s race will help candidate recruitment for
congressional races next year. The GOP lost 50 House seats in 2006 and
2008 and needs strong candidates to win some of them back. Nick Ayres,
executive director of the Republican Governors Association, points out
that 51 of the 74 Republican freshmen who won House seats in 1994, when
the GOP won control of Congress, signed on as candidates in the two
weeks following the election of Republican governors in Virginia and
New Jersey in 1993.
In Virginia, Mr. McDonnell should
benefit from a more conservative electorate. In 2008, Mr. Obama’s
relentless campaigning attracted a surge of young and African-American
voters. The bloc of voters age 18 to 29 grew to 21% of the electorate,
up from 17% in 2004. African-American turnout jumped to 68% of eligible
voters from 52%.
Young and black voters are likely to
vote in smaller numbers this year. But University of Virginia professor
and political guru Larry Sabato calculates that the GOP will see a
boost of at least a few percentage points in turnout this year.
"They’re fired up," he told me. In 2008, "Republicans were
disillusioned and didn’t turn out. I saw it in a lot of places, even in
the heavily Republican [Shenandoah] Valley."
What’s more, after a stunning primary
victory over two better known liberal candidates earlier this year, Mr.
Deeds failed to emerge as an effective opponent. He hasn’t built the
powerful campaign many Democrats hoped he would. And he hasn’t caught
fire in Northern Virginia, where one-third of the state’s voters live,
in part because he’s from rural Bath County in southwest Virginia. His
Appalachian twang doesn’t play well in the suburbs of Washington, D.C.
However, Mr. McDonnell made a critical
mistake over the summer. In an interview with the Washington Post, he
mentioned the thesis he wrote in 1989 for a master’s degree from Regent
University. The paper’s reporting on the thesis has been explosive.
Titled the "Republican Party’s Vision
for the Family," the thesis was sharply critical of feminism, abortion
and gay rights, and argued for a government policy to strengthen the
"traditional family." It also suggested that working women are
"detrimental" to strong families.
Mr. Deeds jumped on the story by
releasing TV ads dubbing Mr. McDonnell "Backwards Bob" and accusing him
of being a right-wing zealot pretending to be a moderate. More harmful
to Mr. McDonnell has been the Post’s obsession with the thesis. By one
count, the Post published 40 stories, blog postings or cartoons on it
in just 13 days.
It’s somewhat reminiscent of 2006,
when Republican Sen. George Allen called a young man taping one of his
speeches "macacca." The Post ran a string of stories on the comment.
But that year, Mr. Allen was slow to react and only apologized after it
was too late. Mr. Webb ended up beating him by a few thousand votes.
Mr. McDonnell hasn’t made the mistake
of dawdling. The day after the story appeared, he spent 90 minutes
answering reporters’ questions. He said his views had changed and that
for Mr. Deeds "to suggest that I somehow don’t support women in the
workplace is insulting." He also noted that one of his daughters was a
combat pilot in Iraq.
Republicans hope the thesis furor will
blow over. "It didn’t change the fundamentals," Ed Gillespie, a former
Republican Party national chairman, told me. But it has energized
Democrats who had thought the race was unwinnable. Organized labor is
now pouring money into the race as one Democratic operative has noted
that, "Right now, this is a race between Barack Obama’s spending and
Bob McDonnell’s thesis."
We’ve come a long way from the
aftermath of Mr. Obama’s victory in the state last year, when Mr. Kaine
declared that election was proof that "old Virginny is dead." What we
are seeing now is that the state’s conservative roots aren’t entirely
dead yet.
Every campaign stumbles at some point.
But if Mr. McDonnell pulls off a victory, he will demonstrate that 2008
may have been an aberration—an artifact of the historic nature of Mr.
Obama’s candidacy and his well-run campaign. A McDonnell win would also
likely be a signal that voters got a close look at Mr. Obama’s ideas
and took out their frustration with the president on the nearest
Democrat—Mr. Deeds. There’s a sense of normalcy returning to Virginia,
and it portends well for Republicans.
Mr. Barnes is executive editor of the Weekly Standard and a commentator on Fox News Channel.
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A13
